Earth Observation Data for Agricultural Drought Monitoring in the Pannonian Basin Laura Crocetti1 (laura.crocetti@geo.tuwien.ac.at), Milan Fischer2, Matthias Forkel3, AlešGrlj4,5, Wai-Tim Ng6, Adam Pasik 1, Ivana Petrakovic1, Andreas Salentinig1, Miroslav Trnka2, Benjamin Wild , Espen Volden7, and Wouter Dorigo1 1 Department of Geodesy and Geoinformation, TU Wien, Austria The SPI, which was developed by McKee et al. Overview of Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) for the ASAL 2.1 Economic and Social Returns to IBLI The economic and social returns to an effective program that insures pastoral and agro-pastoral population against drought-induced livestock losses can be substantial as it can: • Stabilize Asset Accumulation and Enhance Economic Growth. Composite indices incorporate data collected from satellite remote sensors with data collected on the ground. drought impacts result in targeted, cost-effective and sustainable mitigation policies and response. [2,3]), quantitative evaluations of the economic impacts of drought are limited, resulting in a lack of understanding about investing in facilities to reduce drought … Introduction Drought is a part of climatic variability and a natural hazard. Drought and vegetation conditions within the Damqu River Basin, part of the Yangtze River Source Region (YRSR), are assessed here using the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the leaf area index (LAI). The SMT is the BT with completely removed high frequency noise, SMT can be used for estimation of thermal condition, cumulative degree days and other. It helps predict the severity of coming dry spells and how long they might last. Drought Severity Index (DSI) NDVI by itself does not reflect drought or non-drought conditions. 1. Early detection of water related stresses in field crops can allow producers to identify specific areas for irrigation, saving water, energy, and time. In essence, the MSDI is the multivariate version of the commonly used SPI (McKee et al., 1993). The weights for aggregating the variables were objectively determined by … In the United States alone, plant pathogens are reported to cause economic losses of 33 billion annually. tation Index (CAMS OMI; Janowiak and Xie, 1999), while the Global Drought Monitor provides drought monitoring that includes coverage of Africa at a spatial resolution of ∼100km and at monthly intervals3. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was used for more than 30 years as a drought indicator beginning in the 1960s. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. 116: D19112, DOI: 10.1029/2011JD016410. Using this index, we grouped all years from 1967 to 2017 into drought and wet periods (Fig. Drought is a global issue that is exacerbated by climate change and increasing anthropogenic water demands. Traditionally, drought can be classified into meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic drought, based on both physical and socioeconomic factors (Wilhite & Glantz, 1985). Before one can make drought predictions, a quantitative variable or indicator needs to be defined to measure drought conditions of a specific type. Can the CDI predict or forecast drought? Precipitation deficit causes meteorological drought, and its continuation appears as other different types of droughts including hydrological, agricultural, economic, and social droughts. The agricultural drought index should be represented by the crop water availability during the growing season, that varies among crops and seasons. Severe episodes of drought can have a devastating impact, leading to famine, migration, natural resource degradation and weak economic performance, or exacerbating social tensions and civil unrest. “If crops suddenly show stress, we can ask whether that will affect yield, which will depend on the crop and whether it’s in a critical growth stage when drought occurs,” Anderson says. To predict hydrological drought more effectively, the present study used APCC seasonal forecasts, which are an ensemble of simulations from multiple dynamic models. identify drought years •Used composite drought index to measure drought severity •Measured population affected and impact on agricultural production. Drought is one of the most serious and extensive natural hazards in the world. In this letter, the combined use of NDVI data and drought indices has been analysed to predict crop productions at fine spatial resolution. Crop water demand. For the early detec-tion of drought, satellite images taken by environmental and … For example, some tree species can maintain production during drier years because their deep root systems are able to use a greater soil volume to obtain water and nutrients (Verchot et al. It normally occurs several months after the meteorological drought. Drought conditions persisted across parts of the Southwest, Great Plains, and southern Texas, with Texas and California suffering the most agricultural losses. Similar to the SPI, the SDI is a single variable drought index, but each uses the deficiency in During drought, agroforestry’s environmental benefits can be enhanced by its ecological characteristics (Lin 2007). 1950-1990 – 10 drought years since 2000 – 6 drought years (2002, 2004, 2009, 2014 ,2015 and 2016) 68 % of the net sown area in India is prone to drought. 2). Moreover, according to the drought historical record, the significant drought processes monitored by the MCDI were consistent with actual drought conditions. FBN, the global farmer-to-farmer network, announced today the release of its Drought Report, analyzing the implications of the ongoing dry spell for American farmers as the 2021 growing season kicks off. While drought can’t be stopped, it can be forecasted and its impacts substantially reduced. The current Southwest drought is exceptional for its high temperatures and arguably the most severe in history. Compared with the existing multivariate drought index, i.e., meteorological drought composite index (CI), there was a high level of correlation in monitoring drought events in Hubei Province. Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., and Coauthors, 2012: Performance of Drought Indices for Ecological, Agricultural, and Hydrological Applications. Shown above, CDI reveals the impact of a serious drought that spread across in … The Drought Monitor itself is not an index, nor is it based on a single index, but rather is a composite product developed from a rich information stream, including climate indices, numerical models, and the input of regional and local experts around the coun-try. However, future research could investigate the use of agricultural drought indicators that capture both precipitation and temperature effects, including the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Beguería et al 2014), or global gridded soil moisture datasets (e.g. This paper investigates the Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological drought under changing climate. Together they are developing composite drought indices for the region that countries may use to improve planning. farmers. CIMMYT and its partners bred DTM to produce high yields in spite of drought during the flowering phase. Drought in the United Kingdom is a “hidden” pervasive risk, defined and perceived in different ways by diverse stakeholders and sectors. Subject to monsoon climate variability, China is particularly influenced by drought hazards, especially meteorological drought. The This paper investigates the Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological drought under changing climate. However, the drought effect on agriculture varies largely on a local scale due to diverse factors such as climatological and hydrological conditions, sensitivity of crop yield to water stress, and crop phenological stage among others. What are the agricultural drought indices?. yield can be explained by combination of drought conditions and I SC, respectively. This reduction in 1 The goal of this research is to better characterize current state of USDM so that we can quantify how far the current drought state is from the next-higher or next-lower drought category. Exposure to drought can have both direct and indirect effects on soil microbial communities, which can result in lasting legacy effects on the functions they control. hydrological cycle. Drought often results in significant agricultural losses, which can have widespread effects. Hydrologic Drought Index (PHDI). Agriculture drought can be monitored with the vegetation cover and the deviation to normal conditions. The results showed that Random Forest provides the best outcomes. Drought is one of the most important abiotic stresses causing drastic reductions in yield in rainfed rice environments. Originally written February 1, 2006 | Last updated February 23, 2014. The MENAdrought project is focused on strengthening in-country capacity and locally-led development to create an enabling environment, and the latest digital data advances for improved drought management, while catalyzing sustainable, enterprise-driven enhancement of drought resilience. FBN Chief Economist Kevin McNew, Ph.D. forecasts that international demand and U.S. drought could push grain prices to highest marks in years. The Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) integrates drought information from precipitation and soil moisture and pro-vides a composite of meteorological and agricultural drought con-ditions (Hao and AghaKouchak, 2013). The recent occurrence of drought in California provides an important opportunity to examine drought response across ecosystem classes (forests, shrublands, grasslands, and wetlands), which is essential to understand how climate influences ecosystem structure and … Below-normal availability of water for a considerable period of time induces occurrence of drought. By plotting the different metrics for different thresholds of ‘drought’, the . hydrological drought, and agricultural drought are assessed quantita-tively in meteorology, hydrology, and agriculture, respectively (e.g. Coincidentally, there has been an increase in forest and woodland mortality due to fires and pathogenic outbreaks. Snag density increased significantly in both forest types. The capacity to monitor and predict the drought attributes (onset, frequency, duration and severity) is fundamental for spatiotemporal (drought) monitoring. Currently the CDI does not predict or forecast drought. Drought is a major natural hazard in the Bolivian Altiplano that causes large agricultural losses. Agriculture drought can be monitored with the vegetation cover and the deviation to normal conditions. drought can be observed from space (Kogan, 1995a). were isolated using as a probe a drought- and abscisic acid (ABA)-induced cDNA clone (pLE16) from cultivated tomato ( Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.). multivariate or composite drought indices have been developed in the past decade by integrating a suite of hydroclimatic variables or indices for comprehensive drought monitoring (Figs. However, using easily observed meteorological variables in combination with trees' physiological variables to predict possible drought-induced mortality is rare (Anderegg et al 2013). Soil moisture in root zone soil layers is one of the most important indicators of agricultural drought. Besides drought monitoring, water management, and irrigation scheduling, uses of the ALEXI/satellite package include crop yield prediction. 2015), and the Vegetation Drought Response Index(VegDRI,Tadesseetal.2015).Giventhatthemajorityofresearch papersarefocused on constructing a new drought index in a multivariate manner for quantitative measurement of I will predict these climate risk zones based on SLR, areas of low precipitation, and drought indices and analyze the potential outmigration in relation to the governance indices of the relevant countries: measures of political rights and government stability. The composite difference of fire weather index is evaluated by 10 positive and 6 negative years because of the available data length. Once it has affected crop growth, farmers and producers enter a new territory of what if's. The resulting drought index can be expected to behave very similarly to soil moisture-based indices. In terms of recall and precision, RF produced 0.84 and 0.59 and DTC brought a 0.8 and 0.33, respectively, to predict drought. The USDM classifies drought into five discrete dryness/drought categories. It defi nes the drought taking into account the amount The suitability of grain yield (GY) under drought as a selection criterion has been reported in the past few years. The demise of drought is more difficult to predict because drought can end abruptly after a few heavy rain events. Most of the quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for GY under drought in rice reported so far has been in the background of low-yielding susceptible varieties. In other words, we want to define a “continuous version” of the USDM. Snags (standing dead trees) are important biological legacies in forest systems, providing numerous resources as well as a record of recent tree mortality. The Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)8 provides consistent spatial and temporal skill of the forecast . Karl et al. Many models predict that climate change will have major negative effects on wheat production areas, especially in the WANA region (Habash et al., 2009). To measure the impact of agricultural drought, it is important to Abstract. Index insurance DTM biological drought tolerance Drought is a significant factor in predicting crop yields and the final success of a crop. The agricultural drought will differ between crops because of two major factors (demand and supply), that are discussed in the following section: 1.1.1.1. The definition of a CDI in an area as naturally arid as the MENA region will be different to those used in wetter areas. Temperature Condition Index (TCI), and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) are also used for drought study. (SPEI) and the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). e proposed Bayesian network-based drought forecast-ing (BNDF) model is a probabilistic drought prediction sys-tem based on the drought forecast model in [ ] and applied historical runo in Bayesian networks. It was used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with 3-month time scale, that allows identifying agricultural drought events. Retrieved input data for years from 1983 – 2017 was used to develop drought indices with timescale intervals of 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months to represent different types of drought. Drought. One of the most important advantages of … These two approaches (remote sensing data and drought indices) have been useful for crop prediction. Generated from data collected by NOAA AVHRR satellites since 1981, the VHI is a composite index combin- A multivariate, composite drought index (CDI) was developed drawing on the understanding of the multiple feature spaces of the hydrological cycle that contribute to the occurrence of drought. In 2014, more than half of the accumulated rainfall occurred between flowering and harvest and a low to moderate drought intensity index of 0.3 was still obtained. The APCC provides deterministic 3 month and 6 month MME predictions of precipitation and temperature from the simple composite method (Min et al., 2014). Buchanan, 2005). land the losses of agricultural production caused by weather anomalies can reach even 40% of cereals yield. How drought could beget more drought across the West and Midwest. Agricultural drought happens when crops become affected. The Drought Report details:. Four types of drought can be identified : (i) Meteorological drought is defined as a less-than-normal amount of precipitation for a certain region and time period [15,17,18]. Besides drought monitoring, water management and irrigation scheduling, uses of the ALEXI/satellite package include crop yield prediction. The Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)8 provides consistent spatial and temporal Droughts can be divided into agricultural drought, social drought, meteorological drought, and hydrological drought (Wilhite and. 2007). Potential impact integrates drought exposure and local sensitivity to predict how an event might affect any given rangeland socioecological system. Introduction. We defined drought as a period that consisted of two or more consecutive water years classified as below normal, dry, or critically dry. Agricultural drought is the availability of soil ... • the values of the Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) can be used as independent variables to predict agricultural crop … It normally occurs several months after the meteorological drought. Once it has affected crop growth, farmers and producers enter a new territory of what if's. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Impact of drought on various sectors has long been recognized. Refs. Agricultural drought happens when crops become affected. The drought adversely affected main staple food-production zones of Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. The U.S. Drought Monitor, a much-improved composite index, was introduced in 1999 and was used as the USDA drought trigger shortly thereafter. We used a multivariate drought index as the composite drought index (CDI), which could comprehensively consider all possible drought driving factors regarding Current drought is providing yet another specter of societal vulnerability to climatic extremes in the interior West. 1, pre-drought conditions such as early vegetation green-up due to a warm spring can be a key indicator of vulnerability (Wolf et al., 2016). Providing situational awareness of climate, drought, and water resources for Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico as part of the NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System (DEWS). The proposed CDI uniquely described drought beyond any assumption or traditional subcategories (i.e., meteorological, hydrological, or agricultural drought). Gov. In the abovementioned studies, the referred indices can monitor the different drought types separately, for example, SPI individually for meteorological droughts, SDI individually for hydrological droughts [38], and SPEI for agricultural droughts. Forecasting multivariate droughts can provide good … application to drought monitoring to areas and periods where negative correlations are observed, namely, to conditions when water—not energy—is the primary factor limiting vegetation growth. Jack Dalrymple has declared an agricultural drought emergency due to drought conditions in 50 counties in North Dakota.The declaration requires state agencies to prepare drought … From 1997 to 2017, we monitored snag populations in drought-influenced mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in northern Arizona. Using drought indices is a realistic way to adapt large amounts of data into quantitative
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